{"id":304043,"date":"2026-02-26T09:41:03","date_gmt":"2026-02-26T17:41:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.castingnetworks.com\/?p=304043"},"modified":"2026-05-22T12:19:34","modified_gmt":"2026-05-22T19:19:34","slug":"2026-actor-awards-predictions-men-categories-winners","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.castingnetworks.com\/news\/2026-actor-awards-predictions-men-categories-winners\/","title":{"rendered":"The Actor Awards 2026: Men&#8217;s Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Last month when I made my Golden Globes predictions, I warned you that I\u2019d be back for the Actor Awards, and since it\u2019s now that time, here I am! I know, I know, you\u2019re very excited, especially since I nailed 10 of 14 at the Globes, and two of my four misses came from the \u201cshould win,\u201d so if you ask me, it was even more impressive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Interestingly, while the Actor Awards (formerly the SAG Awards) are a better bellwether for the Oscars than the Globes, there are some prominent names missing from the following lists that lead me to believe that perhaps this year might not be like the others. The absence of literally all actors from foreign movies is telling, especially when you consider that Stellan Skarsg\u00e5rd is the clear frontrunner for Supporting Actor, and not one but two of his <em>Sentimental Value<\/em> costars are serious contenders for Supporting Actress.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A year ago, two of four winners (Zoe Salda\u00f1a and Kieran Culkin) won Academy Awards, while the other two (Demi Moore and Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet) did not. What does that mean for the film categories? Mostly that they might be more wide open than you\u2019d think. I suspect the TV categories are less so, but let\u2019s dive in and see. We\u2019ll start with the male acting categories, film and TV, rapid-fire style. Tomorrow, we\u2019ll get to the actresses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Insights<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Repetition matters: when an actor like Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet dominates a category, it signals that sustained excellence and smart role selection can turn talent into narrative momentum.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Career positioning can outweigh flash, as contenders like Benicio del Toro and Paul Mescal show how timing, visibility, and industry perception shape wins as much as the performance itself.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>On television, consistency is king: actors such as Noah Wyle and Seth Rogen prove that building a season long arc audiences invest in can become an awards engine.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n\n    <div class=\"d-flex align-items-center justify-content-center px-lg-5 px-3 pt-1\" style=\"background-color: rgba(10,9,9,0);background-image: url(&#039;https:\/\/www.castingnetworks.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Mask-group.webp&#039;); background-size: cover; background-position: center;\">\n        <div class=\"banner-left col-4 col-lg-5\">\n            <h2 class=\"text-left\">Get access to thousands <br>of high-quality roles.<\/h2>\n        <\/div>\n        <div class=\"banner-center col-3 col-lg-3 text-center\">\n                            <picture>\n                                            <source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.castingnetworks.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/PHONE-MOCK-2-mobile.webp\" media=\"(max-width: 768px)\">\n                                                                <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.castingnetworks.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Group-32.webp\" alt=\"Banner Image\" class=\"banner-image-mobile\">\n                                    <\/picture>\n                    <\/div>\n        <div class=\"banner-right col-5 col-lg-4 text-center\">\n                            <a id=\"banner-link\" href=\"https:\/\/app.castingnetworks.com\/login\/signup\/TALENT?_ga=2.43125222.2103773832.1721048373-1030609057.1713483804&#038;_gl=1*1vfcgsy*_gcl_au*MTk4MzczMDgyNy4xNzIxMzA4NzY4*_ga*MTAzMDYwOTA1Ny4xNzEzNDgzODA0*_ga_5V50WCP8LX*MTcyMTMyMTIwOS4zMDYuMS4xNzIxMzIxMjM5LjAuMC4zMTgwMTM3MQ..&#038;post_type=news&#038;p=135120&#038;preview=true\" class=\"btn-article btn-primary btn-dark text-white text-nowrap\" target=\"_blank\">\n                    JOIN FREE TODAY                <\/a>\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The nominees are Michael B. Jordan, <em>Sinners<\/em>, Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet, <em>Marty Supreme<\/em>, Leonardo DiCaprio, <em>One Battle After Another<\/em>, Jesse Plemons, <em>Bugonia <\/em>and Ethan Hawke, <em>Blue Moon<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s a shame Globe winner Wagner Moura isn\u2019t in this category, because I really believe he gave the performance of the year, rivaled only, really, by Chalamet, who won this category last year. I think the kid repeats as the winner, something that has <em>literally never happened before <\/em>in the history of this award, because as good as Jordan is, Chalamet is transcendent in <em>Marty Supreme<\/em>\u2019s title role.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>WHO SHOULD WIN: Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>WHO WILL WIN: Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The nominees are Miles Caton, <em>Sinners<\/em>, Benicio del Toro, <em>One Battle After Another<\/em>, Jacob Elordi, <em>Frankenstein<\/em>, Paul Mescal, <em>Hamnet <\/em>and Sean Penn, <em>One Battle After Another<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Again, the man I think is going to win the Oscar, Stellan Skarsg\u00e5rd, isn\u2019t nominated here, which is a crime, but what can you do? There are something like 110,000 voting members of SAG-AFTRA, and maybe a lot of them aren\u2019t into foreign films. Perhaps it\u2019s uncouth to suggest that the members of the Academy have more refined tastes, but sometimes honesty is a difficult swallow. Anyway, focusing on what we have here, there are genuine arguments for everyone. I think there\u2019s a chance that del Toro and Penn split the vote of <em>OBAA <\/em>fans, and since Caton and Elordi are both terrific in their respective films, and people like to recognize new talent, they each also have a shot. That\u2019s why I think Paul Mescal might emerge from the group to win though, because he\u2019s still on the rise, but more established than the other two. On the other hand, he didn\u2019t land an Oscar nod, so it\u2019s possible that people give it to del Toro, who I think is better in <em>OBAA<\/em> than Penn, who, honestly, underwhelmed me. I don\u2019t want to flip a coin, but it\u2019s that close. I do like Benicio, so I\u2019ll go with him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>WHO SHOULD WIN: <s>Stellan Skarsg\u00e5rd<\/s> Benicio del Toro<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>WHO WILL WIN: Benicio del Toro<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>MALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The nominees are Noah Wyle, <em>The Pitt<\/em>, Walton Goggins, <em>The White Lotus<\/em>, Sterling K. Brown, <em>Paradise<\/em>, Gary Oldman, <em>Slow Horses <\/em>and Billy Crudup, <em>The Morning Show<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As I reiterated last month when I wrote about the Globes, this category will always be easy for me to declare who should win it. Gary Oldman deserves every award that recognizes greatness in televised drama as long as he\u2019s playing Jackson Lamb on <em>Slow Horses<\/em>. Period. End of sentence and paragraph and everything else. But he\u2019s not going to win, because Noah Wyle continues to win every conceivable award for his turn on <em>The Pitt<\/em>, and if you\u2019ve seen the show, it\u2019s honestly hard to argue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>WHO SHOULD WIN: Gary Oldman<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>WHO WILL WIN: Noah Wyle<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>MALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The nominees are Adam Brody, <em>Nobody Wants This<\/em>, Ted Danson, <em>Man on the Inside<\/em>, Martin Short, <em>Only Murders in the Building<\/em>, and Seth Rogen and Ike Barinholtz, <em>The Studio<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is the first time in four years that Jeremy Allen White is eligible for this award and not nominated, though last year he lost to Martin Short, so it\u2019s not like he had a lock on the category. I personally love Ted Danson and think he\u2019s amazing on <em>Man on the Inside<\/em>, and I think this most recent season of <em>Only Murders in the Building<\/em> wasn\u2019t just the weakest in the show\u2019s run, it was downright bad. Not that any of this matters, because Seth Rogen will, like the above-mentioned Mr. Wyle, continue his run of wins in the category. I suppose it\u2019s possible that his costar Barinholtz will upset him, but I doubt it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>WHO SHOULD WIN: Ted Danson<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>WHO WILL WIN: Seth Rogen<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>MALE ACTOR IN A TELEVISION MOVIE OR LIMITED SERIES<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The nominees are Charlie Hunnam, <em>Monster: The Ed Gein Story<\/em>, Owen Cooper and Stephen Graham, <em>Adolescence<\/em>, Jason Bateman, <em>Black Rabbit <\/em>and Matthew Rhys, <em>The Beast in Me<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This one would be easy, if not for the fact that, for the first time, Stephen Graham and Owen Cooper are in the same category. Honestly, I think if you were to ask Graham himself who he wants to win, he would look you in the eye, tell you \u201cOwen Cooper,\u201d and he would mean it. Fabulous as Graham is in <em>Adolescence<\/em>, I just think the kid is so majestic, everyone else will feel the same. I know I do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>WHO SHOULD WIN: Owen Cooper<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>WHO WILL WIN: Owen Cooper<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Takeaways<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Choose roles that stretch you beyond competence into transformation, because the work that feels slightly dangerous, the kind audiences call transcendent, is what separates you from a crowded field.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Think long term about your career narrative; awards bodies respond not just to one great performance but to the story of your rise, your risks, and your evolution.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In ensembles and limited series, generosity and clarity can steal the spotlight, as rising talents like Owen Cooper remind us that truth and specificity beat volume every time.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Last month when I made my Golden Globes predictions, I warned you that I\u2019d be back for the Actor Awards, and since it\u2019s now that time, here I am! I know, I know, you\u2019re very excited, especially since I nailed 10 of 14 at the Globes, and two of my four misses came from the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":55,"featured_media":304044,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"cn_email_teaser":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[757,745],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-304043","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-acting-101","category-acting-advice"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>2026 Actor Awards: Predictions for the Men&#039;s Categories<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"From bold leading turns to scene stealing supporting work, this year\u2019s Actor Awards spotlight the choices, career timing, and momentum that help actors stand out and build 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